A recently discovered comet will make an uncomfortably close worldwide flyby next year — but this sentence it ’s not Earth that ’s in the cosmic crosshairs . accord to preliminary orbital prediction models , comet C/2013 A1 will buzz Mars on October 19 , 2014 . Early reckoning suggest that the fortune of impact is low — but that could change as novel data emerges .
The frosty interloper is thought to originate from the Oort Cloud , a supposititious area fence in the solar system containing countless billions of cometic nuclei that were outcast from the primordial solar system million of age ago .
We know that the planets have been tally by comets before ( e.g. the massive Comet Shoemaker – Levy 9 that crashed into Jupiter in 1994 ) and Mars , in particular , will have been gain by comets in the past . It ’s believe Earth ’s oceans were created , in part , by water delivered by comet — cometic impacts are an inevitable part of living in this cosmic ecosystem .
C/2013 A1 was discover by ace comet - hunter Robert McNaught at the Siding Spring Observatory in New South Wales , Australia , on January 3 . When the discovery was made , astronomers at the Catalina Sky Survey in Arizona looked back over their observation to find “ prerecovery ” images of the comet dating back to December 8 , 2012 . These observations placed the orbital trajectory of comet C/2013 A1through Mars orbit on October 19 , 2014 .
Could the Red Planet be in for a potentially huge impact next year ? Will Mars rovers Curiosity and Opportunity be in danger of becoming fighting metal ?
It seems the likelihood of an awful planetary impact is low — for now .
accord to computing by NASA ’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory ( JPL ) , close approach data suggests the comet is most likely to make a close straits of 0.0007 AU ( that ’s approximately 63,000 nautical mile from the Martian airfoil ) . However , there ’s one huge caution .
Due to doubtfulness in the observations ( the comet has only been observed for 74 day ) , it ’s difficult for astronomers to forecast the comet ’s precise emplacement in 20 months time ; comet C/2013 A1 may fly past at a very good distance of 0.008 AU ( 650,000 miles ) . But to the other extreme , its orbital liberty chit could put Mars directly in its path . At the time of Mars close plan of attack ( or impact ) , the comet will be barrel along at a breakneck hurrying of 35 miles per second ( 126,000 miles per hr ) .
Also , we do n’t yet eff how big comet C/2013 A1 is , but comets typically are n’t little . If it did shoot , the impact could be a huge , global event . But the comet ’s likely position in 2014 is also extremely uncertain , so this is by no mean a “ trusted thing ” for Mars impact ( Curiosity , you could relax , for now ) .
One affair is attend likely , however . Mars could be in for its own “ cometic spectacular . ”
A flyby of that distance will mean that should C3/2013 A1 erupt with a tail and coma around its karyon ( as it becomes heated by solar radiation ) , our Mars rovers and orbiting armada of terrestrial watching orbiter will have a very intimate view of this historic here and now . It has the potential to bea more impressive visual modality than Comet ISON ’s internal - solar organisation treklater this year . But understand the nature of comets is hard to predict ; we wo n’t have intercourse if the sunshine ’s heat will be sufficient enough for the comet nucleus to erupt and start out - gassing for some sentence to come .
Sources : JPL , Astroblog , LOC AstronomyviaReddit .
This article to begin with appeared atDiscovery News .
Images via Astroblog .
AstronomyMarsScienceSpace
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